Only six weeks to go in the presidential campaign, and the public opinion surveys have developed a case of the jitters. Last week, one respected poll reported that President Obama had opened an eight-point lead over Mitt Romney, but another reported that the race was dead even. Other surveys were scattered in between. What’s a poor voter supposed to believe?

I consulted three smart pollsters — one Democrat, one Republican, one nonpartisan — and they all offered the same advice: Calm down. It’s not as crazy as it looks. Yes, Obama has taken a lead, but only a modest lead, not one big enough to prevent Romney from closing the gap if he can only find the right ingredients.